Home Editor's PicksDoes an Uptick in the Unemployment Rate Translate?

Does an Uptick in the Unemployment Rate Translate?

Canada’s returning students' unemployment rate fell in 2026; however, experts and TMU students have more to say than the numbers show.

by Husam Khder-Chikhalhadadin

Students walk through Toronto Metropolitan University's campus with buildings visible in the background.
The job search continues for many TMU students despite better unemployment numbers (OTR/Husam Khder-Chikhalhadadin).

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Hamed Bakkar began looking for a machine-learning internship in January; he applied to about 150 internships and another 50 retail jobs by late May, but the fourth-year Toronto Metropolitan University (TMU) student has had no luck.

“I would definitely say it was very hard,” Bakkar said. “I’ve asked people around me, and they applied for way more as well, and they didn’t end up getting any.”

According to Statistics Canada’s August Labour Force Survey, students entered September with a slight improvement in the summer job market. The unemployment rate for students aged 15 to 24 averaged 15.9 percent from May through August 2026, down from 17.9 percent during the same period in 2025.  

“I’d say it’s an important decline, but the rates still remain,” John Shields said. Shields is an emeritus professor from TMU’s Department of Politics and Public Administration. “These are pretty high rates for youth. There’s a lot of youth looking for work who are just not finding it.” The change was larger for returning students ages 20-24; their summer unemployment rate fell from 12.3 percent to 9.2 percent.

The broader 12-month picture has also shown some improvements. The unemployment rate for all youth aged 14 to 24 was 12.9 percent in August 2026, down from 14.3 percent a year prior. 

Those figures require careful interpretation, according to Ana Ferrer, a University of Waterloo economics professor whose research includes labour economics. 

“This improvement affects only the returning students, and it just tells us that in the short run, compared to last year, things are slightly better,” Ferrer said. “But it doesn’t tell us what is going to happen next year.”

She said the stronger improvements that are seen among older returning students may reflect their stronger experience and access to co-op placements, work-integrated learning and professional connections. Ferrer cautioned that only a single year of better results is not enough to determine a lasting recovery. 

“I think the big problem here is uncertainty and the fact that we still are facing a lot of uncertainties in the economy,” Ferrer said. “It’s so uncertain that it’s really hard to make a prediction.”

Shields says that the unemployment rate can miss discouraged job seekers, as people who stop looking for work are no longer counted as unemployed. Statistics Canada defines the unemployment rate as the number of unemployed people as a percentage of the labour force; this consists of people who are employed or actively looking for work. 

Shields says that younger workers are more likely to be concentrated in retail, hospitality and other entry-level jobs, while the career-building positions are becoming more difficult to obtain. 

“But I think that the more general problem, I think for new entrants to the labour market, we’re talking mostly about younger people, is that the work that they’re getting is far more precarious than previous generations,” Shields said. “And again, I think you know, the jobs that really lead to more substantive careers are becoming rarer.”

For Bakkar, one of the hardest parts about his job search was the lack of replies from employers. He said that he had only received seven rejections and four interviews from roughly about 200 internship and retail applications, with no responses from the remainder of the applications.

“I feel like that affects you way more than not getting anything back,” Bakkar said.

Karim Natafji, a third-year TMU computer engineering student, landed a four-month technology-related summer internship upon receiving a referral from a friend. Natafji said that the referral helped him land the interview, but it does not necessarily mean he gets hired. 

“I’m not sure I would have got my co-op job if I wasn’t referred,” Natafji said. “That’s why it’s kind of difficult in that aspect is getting the interview. But it’s not impossible.”

Natafji’s current search shows how competitive the job hunt remains. Natafji said that he applied to almost 80 positions through TMU’s co-op portal over approximately two weeks. So far, he has received about five rejections and is now waiting to hear back from the rest. 

“It’s a small improvement, but it’s better than nothing,” he said.

Both professional labour market experts emphasized the value of work-integrated learning and personal connections. Ferrer said students should use classes, university events, friends and faculty to build networks with employers; similarly, Shields said internships can provide experience, references and a path into permanent work.

When Bakkar was not able to secure work for the summer of 2026, he decided to change his summer plans and return home rather than stay in Canada.

When told that the returning students’ unemployment rate had improved, Bakkar said, “It’s more of the same so far for me; it might even be a little worse.”

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