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Scrapping the divisive carbon tax was the first thing on the agenda for Prime Minister Mark Carney, who signed a prime ministerial directive just hours after being sworn in.
Though projections show that Canada remains 18 per cent below target when it comes to meeting its emission goals, according to Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).
Canada committed to cutting its greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels in 2021 — a more ambitious target than its initial 30 per cent reduction under the Paris Agreement. But in 2023, Canada’s emissions had only declined by about eight per cent, according to the Canadian Climate Institute.
With just five years left on the clock, experts say reaching the emissions target is going to be tricky, given how politicized climate policy has become.
“Climate policy is absolutely becoming politicized and polarized. It’s a pawn in partisan exchanges,” said Debora VanNijnatten, a political science professor at Wilfrid Laurier University.
Meeting the targets is mostly doable, say experts, including VanNijnatten, if politicians are strategic and focus on policies that sit well with the public and prepare for the future goal of net-zero emissions.
“I think the leader is going to have to be really creative and think about co-benefits, which are the things that we can push for that are not specifically climate policy but can deliver climate benefits,” VanNijnatten said.
While VanNijnatten says carbon pricing effectively addresses carbon emissions, she said the next leader has to ditch it.
“It’s unfortunate, but if it’s a political albatross for climate policy, get rid of it,” VanNijnatten said.
Carbon pricing in Canada has two parts – one for consumers and the other for industries. The consumer fuel charge, which has become hotly debated in recent years, is placed on fuels like gasoline and natural gas to incentivize people to pollute less, according to the Government of Canada. The consumer portion of the tax is the one Carney instructed to be removed effective April 1.
“This whole election is going to be premised on the unpopularity of the carbon tax, and that is a huge part of why Justin Trudeau has become so unpopular,” said Andrew Heffernan, an adjunct professor of politics at the University of Ottawa.
Heffernan says that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is shaping his platform around his “axe the tax” slogan, which he says is based partly on mis- and disinformation from Poilievre and amplified by fossil fuel companies.
“The Conservatives are going to try to say that the Liberals have done nothing to effectively fight climate change and that their policies are going to cost Canadians more and continue to drive up inflation, despite the fact that we know that that is not actually the case,” Heffernan said.
“If the Conservatives win, we’ll be in a climate policy retreat,” said VanNijnatten.
In 2023, Canada’s emissions dropped by about eight per cent compared to 2005 levels, according to Ross Linden-Fraser, research lead for the Canadian Climate Institute’s 440 Megatonnes project.
“Canada’s emissions have been flat for many years, and a reduction is very good news, but we obviously need to see accelerated reductions to meet that target of a 40 per cent cut by 2030,” said Linden-Fraser.
Although changing climate plans could be a setback for progress, Linden-Fraser says it is understandable and needs to be addressed to meet emission targets.
“It’s reasonable for governments to change their plans or strategies, but our perspective is that whatever governments do should add up,” said Linden-Fraser. “There should be a plan that adds up to the target, and if one policy is taken off the table, that could be a setback for our progress.”
Regardless of approach, all federal party leaders will need some kind of climate policy going into the next election to have any hope of success, said Heffernan.
“It is really one of those difficult needles to thread because Canadians do care; we’re aware of Paris and the climate crisis and want something done about it — We’re just not exactly willing to pay for it,” he said.
Instead of taxing consumers for polluting, Heffernan says he thinks leaders will focus on incentivizing a shift to green alternatives for things such as transportation and housing upgrades.
“I don’t think it’s necessarily going to help us get to the Paris goals; I think it’d be best if we could just keep the carbon tax the way it is. However, I do think we’ll be able to keep making progress towards our target with this renewed plan,” Heffernan said.
Shifting the attention to industrial emitters is one thing advocates say leaders should focus on if getting rid of carbon pricing, especially concerning the oil and gas sector, which accounts for 31 per cent of Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions, according to ECCC.
“The federal government has methane regulations for the upstream oil and gas sector, and those regulations are going through a policy development process. They could have an important effect on emissions, and we recommend that that policy proposal gets put into place as soon as possible,” said Linden-Fraser.
Canada aims to cut emissions nearly in half by 2030, but its ultimate target is reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 – a commitment the country made in 2022.
According to VanNijnatten, this goal requires more long-term, “big ticket” policies that don’t deliver emission reductions right away, such as the electrical grid or carbon-capturing technologies and should also be considered by the new prime minister.
“There just hasn’t been the kind of movement forward that we need to have in terms of greening the grid and preparing for the increased capacity we’re going to need as we electrify all of these different things,” VanNijnatten said.
“Every year that passes without doing the hard stuff makes net zero by 2050 harder to achieve.”
Vanessa Tiberio is a Toronto-based reporter with an interest in covering politics, current affairs and culture.
