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The TTC is projecting a $36.5-million budget shortfall for 2025, according to a financial update presented at the Sept. 10 board meeting. Officials say the gap is temporary and won’t affect riders, but student commuters and transit advocates say the system is already showing cracks.
The report shows the TTC collected $80.5 million less in revenue than expected in the first half of the year, largely due to lower ridership and delayed provincial reimbursements for Line 5 Eglinton and Line 6 Finch West. About $44 million in savings — from reduced fuel costs, staffing vacancies, and deferred IT spending — softened the blow, but wasn’t enough to make up the shortfall.
For Sydney Watt, a first-year Toronto Metropolitan University (TMU) student, the daily commute already feels unpredictable. Watt travels from Eglinton Station by bus and subway, a trip that takes about an hour.
“It’s very overcrowded getting on at Eglinton. Sometimes I can’t get on a subway, and even when I do, it’s so packed there’s nowhere to hold,” she said. “It’s very, very slow until Bloor.”
While she hasn’t yet been late for an exam, Watt said she nearly missed class during her third week. She said she worries the budget shortfall could worsen delays.
“The majority of the students I know are commuting, and it’s hard sometimes to plan the timing of buses,” she said. “If you miss one subway, not many people can get on the next. I think if the money were available, it would help students.”
Riders won’t feel the impact of the shortfall, said TTC spokesperson Stuart Green.
“It doesn’t mean anything yet,” he said. “As more riders come back to the system, our revenue will increase. We’ll also continue to find in-house efficiencies as we do every year, so they’ll be intact.”
But Cameron MacLeod, executive director of CodeRedTO, a transit advocacy group, said the situation is more complicated.
While Green emphasized the shortfall wouldn’t affect riders, MacLeod argued it could still shape decisions behind the scenes.
“I disagree with that,” he said.
“It’s not that there would be a dramatic, sudden change to services right now, but it puts the TTC on guard. If they were considering investing more during the school year, they might need to hold off.”
Alessia De Leo, another TMU student, commutes from Oakville, a trip that takes close to an hour. She said the morning rush is so busy that she’s rearranged her class schedule.
“In the mornings, it’s crazy. The entire platform will usually be packed, so I’ve been taking afternoon classes instead,” she said. “It sounds like a lot of money, and I think if the TTC had it, they could improve things.”
MacLeod pointed to a deeper structural issue: budget gaps make it harder for the TTC to pay for drivers, resulting in vehicles being left idle.
“The TTC has hundreds of buses and over 100 streetcars parked every day simply because there are not enough operators,” he said. “Late vehicles and missing vehicles are already eroding trust.”
Green rejected that claim. “That is not accurate,” he said. “The reason we have buses not in operation is because they’re sometimes held back for operational reasons, not because of an operator shortage.”
Advocates also warn that reliability issues are eroding rider trust.
MacLeod tied this to systemic underfunding, while Green pointed to congestion on Toronto’s streets as the main culprit.
“If a bus or streetcar is operating in congested parts of Toronto, the reliability won’t be as good,” Green said. “We constantly look at routes that are affected by chronic congestion and adjust those every six weeks.”
MacLeod said that while annual budget adjustments are common, the TTC lacks clear political direction to expand service. Without strong backing from the city council to run more vehicles and fix service gaps, he said, the system won’t rebuild trust or attract new riders.
“Even if more students and office workers come back, they’re not going to show up if they can’t rely on the vehicles to be there.”
Green emphasized the TTC’s limited options when it comes to revenue strategy.
“We get operating money from two sources, the city’s tax base and customers,” he said. “More customers mean more revenue. If we want to expand beyond what we’re doing now, that money has to come from one of those places.”
MacLeod worries of a worst-case scenario.
“If nothing changes, we’re going to see less and less reliability,” he said. “That could mean cuts to subway frequency and what we sometimes call a ‘death spiral’ — fewer riders, more service cuts, and even less trust in the system.”
Green acknowledged that reduced service did cause ridership declines in Toronto decades ago, but said the TTC is committed to avoiding that outcome.
“Our plan is to maintain and expand service, as we’ve been doing over many years,” he said.
No AI tools were used in the production of this piece.
