While the world waits for results, On the Record recaps the election so far and explains what Canadians need to know about the incoming candidates.
How Does the Election Work?
Unlike Canadians, Americans vote directly for who they want to see as president – Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, Republican nominee Donald Trump or a third-party candidate. It takes 270 electoral college votes to win the presidency, a majority of the 538 votes at stake, to win the White House.
Each state is allocated electors based on the size of its congressional delegation, meaning that the number of electors – and their importance for nominees – varies by state. Several smaller states, including Alaska and Wyoming, have three electors each, while California, the largest, has 54 electoral votes.
The winner of the 2024 US election will likely be determined by voters in seven swing states: Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Nevada, Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania. While “red states” or “blue states” have historically voted predominantly for one party or the other, like Texas or Vermont respectively, swing states are often a toss-up between Democratic and Republican candidates.
In the seven battleground states, Harris was ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan, according to an average of every statewide poll conducted in the past three weeks. Trump held a minute lead in Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona.
The Race So Far
The race has been marked by division, with tensions high on both sides.
After the first presidential debate in June, President Joe Biden’s performance led to heavy criticism and worry from Democrats of his competence for the role of president.
On the other side of the aisle, former president Trump – already the presumptive 2024 GOP nominee for president – spent the spring in court, and heard a New York jury pronounce him guilty of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. The historic verdict, the outcome of a hush money payment Trump had arranged to prevent adult film actress Stormy Daniels from speaking about their alleged sexual encounter a decade prior, was the first criminal conviction of an American president.
In the ensuing months, tensions heightened further. After months of defending his physical and cognitive health, Biden withdrew from the race in late July, endorsing Vice President Harris as the Democratic nominee only a few months before Election Day.
The race continued with the usual political name calling, with Democrats hammering Trump as a criminal candidate, using Harris’ former role as a prosecutor to bash his campaign while supporting hers. Trump hurled insults against Harris, calling her a “border czar” and “mentally impaired” while suggesting that the former California attorney general and U.S. senator only became the Democratic nominee because of her race and gender. In the middle of a campaign rally, Harris’ running mate, Tim Walz, made thinly veiled references to a disproven online rumour that Trump’s running mate J.D. Vance had sex with his couch.
Concerns for candidates’ safety increased after Trump faced two assassination attempts this summer, the first of which resulted in two deaths – including the would-be assassin – and an injury to Trump’s ear.
In the last few weeks of the campaign, celebrity endorsements came in from Beyonce, Taylor Swift and former Republican governor Arnold Schwarzenegger for Harris; with podcaster Joe Rogan, YouTuber-turned-boxer Jake Paul and Elon Musk among those endorsing Trump.
Among the hot topics of the campaign, and the most divisive among voters, are abortion and women’s rights, immigration and the economy. According to the AP VoteCast, an expansive survey of more than 110,000 American voters, about 4 in 10 voters considered the economy and jobs to be the most important problem facing the country, while about half of voters identified the future of democracy as the most important factor. Trump held an advantage over Harris on which candidate could better handle the economy and immigration, while Harris leads on abortion.
With more than 80.5 million advance ballots returned as of Monday, both candidates are staying optimistic as Americans continue to vote.
“Just one more day in the most consequential election of our lifetime,” Harris said at the final rally of her campaign in Philadelphia last night. “And momentum is on our side.”
Trump told reporters in Florida this morning that he is “confident” that he will win, and that the election “won’t even be close.”
Likewise, voters from both sides of the aisle are optimistic about their party’s chances – including those living out of the country.
Democrats Abroad and Republican Overseas, both organisations which aim to connect voters living outside of America with like-minded communities and encourage American citizens to participate in elections even when they are living out of the country, have been working to support their parties.
Colleen Nahaffie, Toronto Chapter Secretary at Democrats Abroad, said that organisation nearly doubled its numbers from 2020.
“People are excited, momentum is high,” she said. “There’s a lot of joy and energy you see at the Kamala Harris rallies that you don’t necessarily see at the opposing side’s, so I’m hoping that goes well for us.”
Georganne Burke, a Toronto resident who said Republicans Abroad has been working for the last two years to encourage voters to participate in the election, said she’s “hopeful” about Trump’s campaign.
“He has a chance to win,” she said “I think it’s very close, I think it will be very tight.”
Impact on Canadians
For Canadians, a second Trump presidency could mean increased pressure on the already strained economy.
Trump, a self-described “tariff man,” has proposed a minimum 10 per cent global tariff on all U.S. imports from countries outside China, while China would face a 60 per cent tariff on all exports to the U.S.
Eric Miller, a Canadian-American trade consultant based in Washington, said the new tariffs on Canadian exports to the U.S. would be “very, very damaging” to Canada’s economy.
“If you were to put even a ten per cent tariff on Canadian auto exports or things of that nature, it would have a big impact on their competitiveness in the U.S. market,” he said.
Canada could also face increased pressure to boost military spending. In 2014, NATO allies signed an agreement to aspire towards allocating two per cent of their GDP on military spending, but Canada has consistently failed to reach that number.
“This is not going to be a world where Canada can simply say, ‘don’t hit us,’ and everything goes on as it has been,” said Miller. “There is going to be significant change. Part of that will be defence, part will be energy, part will be agriculture and food – it’s a general process of making the United States feel like Canada is pulling its weight in the world.”
Canada was subject to increased trade uncertainty through Trump’s first term as president, when efforts to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement led to Trump threatening to withdraw the U.S. from NAFTA entirely.
“Canada is not without influence here, but getting through this period would take work,” he said. “It’s not to say that everything will be wonderful under Kamala Harris – there will be trade disputes, there will be other things, but they will be much more within the context of the existing system.”
Aftermath
No matter which candidate is elected, Burke said her “biggest concern” is the resulting behaviour from the winner’s opposing party, citing both Democratic protests to Trump’s 2016 victory and the Jan. 6 storming of the Capitol by Trump supporters.
“Everybody should take a deep breath and accept the results of the election and not fight with each other,” she said.
Likewise, Nahaffie said Democrats Abroad has been working to fight misinformation about election results.
“My dire hope is that we don’t see any additional divisions popping up after the election,” she said.
According to Burke, the divide between Republicans and Democrats, even in Canada, has led to a lack of communication about politics and the ostracization of voters from their communities.
“Everyone that’s running, I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt and say that they actually care about the country and they’re doing it for the right reasons,” she said. “I don’t have to agree with the policies they put forward or the lack of policies that they have not put forward, whatever it is. I don’t have to agree with that, but it doesn’t mean that I have to hate the people that support them. I really wish everybody would take that attitude.”
Carly Pews
Reporter, On the Record, Fall 2024.
